Impact of the Steel and Aluminum Tariffs estimated

Last week, the Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU) released a policy paper on the estimated impacts of the Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

The paper is authored in part by economist Laura Baughman, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide LLC. It explains that the tariffs currently apply to all countries, including Canada and Mexico, except those that have agreed to import quotas. These countries include Korea, Argentina and Brazil. The paper also outlines retaliatory tariffs countries have imposed on U.S. goods as a result of the 232 tariffs.

Baughman’s findings include:

  • The tariffs, quotas and retaliation are expected to reduce U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent annually, in the short term. While U.S. imports would decline, so, too, would U.S. exports.
  • Sixteen jobs would be lost for every steel/aluminum job gained. More than two-thirds of the lost jobs would affect workers in production and low-skill jobs, and every state will experience a net loss of jobs.
    • Specifically, the tariffs, quotas and retaliation would increase the annual level of U.S. steel employment and non-ferrous metals (primarily aluminum) employment by 26,280 jobs over the first one-three years, but reduce net employment by 432,747 jobs throughout the rest of the economy, for a total net loss of 400,445 jobs

The complete study is here.